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“Commodity Trading Implications: Russian Wheat Drought & Potential Easing of Northern Brazil's Drought”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter 

• Friday Evening Report - October 4, 2024

The headlines of our WeatherWealth newsletter (earlier this week) show what was covered in a detailed article. It discusses weather forecasting techniques and trading ideas for many commodities affected by the recent drought. You can go down to the bottom of this report and receive this entire free issue.

Over the past four years, we have been a Barcharts contributor, helping farmers, commodity traders, and ETF investors get a big “jump” on markets from soybeans to coffee natural gas, and many other markets. Second-guessing the standard (= FREE) weather models that everyone and their dog look at, is our specialty, as well as developing trading strategies with our 80 years of combined experience, and analysis of trading psychology of weather-driven markets.

For example, here was our advice ("Spider" from this past July) to clients who potentially made at least $1.00/bushel, by being short soybeans (and 50¢ cents in corn), on bogus weather forecasts by other firms for a drought in the Midwest.

Every few months, we offer Barcharts readers one FREE issue.

Currently, we have been watching Brazil's weather very closely for clients. Notice the extreme dryness that previously helped coffee, sugar, and soybeans rally. A week ago, we began forecasting a potential “major change” in the South American weather pattern beginning next week.

Different flavors of La Nña have varying effects on South American summer weather. 

Deforestation and the recent El Niño have also been a factor. One can see from my weather program below how weak vs strong La Niña events affect South American weather in October. The change in rain forecasts I began seeing for Brazil a week ago has resulted in the top of the coffee market and will also affect soybean, sugar, and OJ trading in the weeks ahead.

Russia Declares Disaster for Several Key Wheat-Producing Areas Due to Drought

Severe drought conditions in Russia in the last few months have helped wheat prices rally off their lows. What Russia does with exports and the global demand situation will be just as important as rainfall patterns both for Australian and U.S. Plains wheat in the coming months.

In the meantime, the NAO index (blocks over Greenland) has been the most positive on record this summer. This helped to bring the heat and dryness to parts of eastern Europe and western Russia.

My in in-house weather program, below, illustrates how the NAO index will go negative into the first half of October. This should bring some temporary relief from the extreme drought conditions in western Russia and may (or, may not) have some impact on the wheat market.

ClimatePredict is available for free to any WeatherWealth subscriber and covers all ag markets around the world and natural gas, as well.
 

So… what other weather forecast techniques are we using to predict crop prospects for South American corn and soybeans, potential global

weather problems for wheat and also trading ideas for coffee, sugar, and more?

Download the latest free issue of WeatherWealth here.   https://www.bestweatherinc.com/weather-wealth-sample/

Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team 

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.