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Ag Market Commentary

cmdtyNewswires - Mon Aug 03, 9:40PM UTC

Corn futures prices strengthened by 3/4 to 2 cents on the first trade day of August. March and May contracts were up the most on the day, each closing within a 1/4 of the high. NASS reported after the close that 92% of this year’s corn crop was silking as of August 2. The 5-yr average is 87%. Corn in the dough stage was up 17 percentage points wk/wk to 39%. The 5-yr average is 33%. Corn conditions were UNCH at 380 on the Brugler500 index. USDA reported 378.9 mbu of corn processed for ethanol in June. That was up 26% from the record low in May, but still 17% lower yr/yr. For the MYTD that is 4.017 bbu with 2 months remaining. Corn exports from the week ending July 30 were 28.193 mbu. That was down 81.36 mbu from the week prior, but compares to 25.425 mbu from the same week yr/yr. Accumulated milo exports are 143% larger yr/yr, from the week’s report as China was shipped 170,782 MT. Brazil shipped out 4.15 MMT of corn in July, down from 5.9 MMT from last year.

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.17 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.28 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.40 1/4, up 2 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $3.48, up 2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The front month soybean futures gained 2 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents on Monday. August soybeans closed UNCH at $8.97 1/2 per bushel, which is still a 4 1/2 cent premium to Sept. Preliminary OI as of Friday was just 2,250 contracts for the in delivery Aug beans. The bid/ask spreads were as wide as 2 cents at times today due to that lack of liquidity. The products were mixed with $1.80 to $2.20/ton drops in meal and 64 to 76 point gains in soy oil. Private exporters reported a large soybean sale of 260,000 MT to unknown, 97% of which was new crop. In tonight’s weekly Crop Progress update, 85% of new crop beans were blooming and 59% were setting pods. That is 3% and 5% ahead of average respectively. Conditions improved 1% to 73% good/ex with a 1 point bump to 381 on the Brugler500. USDA’s Fats & Oils report had June crush about 500k bushels below expectations as 177.26 mbu were processed. That was down 1% month to month, but 12.5% above June ’19. Soy oil stocks were tighter than expected with 2.271 billion lbs. USDA’s Export Inspections report showed 20.266 mbu of beans were shipped on the week ending July 30, up 17% wk/wk but down 47% yr/yr. MYTD soybean exports via weekly data is 89.4% of USDA’s forecast, at 1.447 bbu shipped. Brazil exported 10.37 MMT of soybeans in July, according to gov’t data. That compares to 7.44 MMT from July ’19.

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97 1/2, unch,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.93, up 2 3/4 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.96 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $9.01 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $287.10, down $2.20

Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $31.67, up $0.76

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures recovered from midday lows, but still dropped by double digits on the first trade day of the new month. KC wheat was the weakest, with 10 1/4 to 11 3/4 cent losses. SRW futures lost 7 1/4 to 10 1/4 cents in the front months. Spring wheat futures pulled back 5 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents. Winter wheat harvest progressed 4% on the week to 85%; the 5-yr average is 88%. Spring wheat harvest was 5% cut. The average is 10% harvested by August 2. Spring wheat conditions were up 6 points on the Brugler500 index to 378. The weekly Export Inspections report from USDA showed 500,100 MT of wheat shipped on the week ending July 30. That was down 43,900 MT wk/wk, but was 83,933 MT above the same week last year. HRW and white wheat were the top varieties exported on the week, and 71.1% of the total.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.21, down 10 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.30 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.06 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Trading for the new month of August left live cattle futures higher on Monday. Gains were as much as 75 cents through April ’21. Feeder cattle futures closed with gains of 20 to 85 cents. The July 30 CME Feeder Cattle index was $138.58, down 68 cents from the day prior. There were no cash cattle sales reported on Monday, last week the bulk of cash sales last week were at $97 in the South, and mostly $100 in the North. Dressed sales were mostly at $160. Wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger in the PM report. Choice boxes were up $1.40 to $204.66, and Select boxes were $190.40 cwt. after a 51 cent bump. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 113,000 head. That starts the week’s slaughter 4,000 head below last week’s pace and 7k head lower yr/yr.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $103.025, up $0.200,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $108.275, up $0.400,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $111.825, up $0.275,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.875, up $0.200

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.075, up $0.850

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.225, up $0.575

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures were mixed on Monday. The front months of August and October were down by triple digits, with losses weakening to a nickel through May ‘21. Some late 2021 contracts were higher. The weekly Fresh Bacon index from CME was $128.62 cwt. That was down $2.31 wk/wk, and is $58.22 cwt. below last year. The July 30 CME Lean Hog index was $53.52, down by 4 cents. USDA’s National Average afternoon Base Hog price August 03 was $40.28, down by 66 cents. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was quoted at $66.78 this afternoon. Save for hams, which fell back $8.01 to $40.63 cwt., all of the primal cuts were more than $1 stronger. USDA’s estimate for Monday’s hog slaughter is 425,000 head. Last Monday’s kill was 455,000 head, but the same Monday last year was even.

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $49.875, down $2.125,

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $48.400, down $1.225

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $50.075, down $0.300

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures gained triple digits to start the new week of trading. NASS’s Cotton Consumption and Stocks report withheld June’s consumption due to confidentiality rules. Stocks as of June 27 were 1,512 RBs. That was down 9% mo/mo; and through the first half of 2020, each month reduced the stockpile a cumulative 25% from Dec ’19. According to NASS, 91% of 2020/21 cotton was squaring as of August 2. That matches the 5-yr average. Also in the weekly update, 54% of cotton was setting bolls. That is 1ppt behind average nationally, but in TX and GA crops were 1ppt ahead of their respective averages. Conditions worsened by 4 points on the Brugler500 index. In TX, conditions fell back 8 points on the Brugler500 to 301. Last week’s sales on The Seam were 24,474 bales sold at a wtd cash price of 58.71 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was 150 points higher to 68.55 cents/lb on July 31. The week’s AWP is 47.71 cents/lb, and the LDP is 4.29 cents/lb.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 63.53, up 123 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 63.87, up 121 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 64.54, up 129 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 64.95, up 123 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by: <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /> Brugler Marketing & Management LLC 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022 Phone: 402-697-3623 Fax: 402-289-2353 E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a>   <div class="MsoNormal" align="center"> Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com/BruglerSampler">here</a> to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today! <hr /> Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com">Start here</a> </div> Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? <a href="http://www.agricharts.com/forms/ac_ag.php">Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.</a>